weasels racing system

all the years i spent
running pubs
i managed quite a few TAB's as well
as thats where they be located

my office in flaxmere
was beside the TAB lounge
so every day from 8am
the TAB channel was blaring
so i started to pick up on 
nuances in racing
that i thought could be exploited

this is something i came up with
that works

first i find a heavy track
tracks are graded from 1 to 10
1 being hard and fast
10 being a quagmire
i look for 10's
as an example today at avondale



track heavy
lotta rain

then i look for horses that have done the distance
or more
and placed before
i especially look for horses coming off a rest
a drop in class
local (home track a big advantage)

these criteria should not match the favourite
and usually dont

heres my theory
something i noticed was
the first race is always a crap shoot
largely untried or maiden horses
local horses
(small town tracks like woodville are better)
and others down in class rested etc

these horses have better odds
because they are unknowns
coming up fresh
or have done bigger distance in better conditions and lost

these horses are often at their best in this
situation
the mud is an equaliser
local horses are used to local conditions and more
inclined to have trained in mud
little background means favourite is usually wrong

i also look for a good barrier position
thats the number in brackets after the horses name
early on this is important
the track is fresh
the barrier is the shortest distance and the most comfortable
every race thereafter
the horses have to run wider
to get better surface

i get all this info from the Easy Sheet
which is online and the same as at the TAB
takes me a couple of minutes
to pick

this is the only race i will bet on that meeting
my observation tells me that 
the races thereafter are more likely to 
read by pundits 
because of the background form

heres my pick on the race im using for an example
at Avondale
armando is favourite at 2.80 and dropping
justified looks real good
but my pick would be musashi paying $10 for the win
and $4.50 to place

i would do a $4 over $2
on this horse
$4 to win/$2 to place
place bet recovers my spend plus 30%
win bet gets $40

i havent bet on this race
but i guess i have to watch it now